Public Opinion Dynamics Around the Illegal Co-optation of Power by Narco-linked Candidates and Organizations

Abstract

Why do citizens support candidates with links to drug trafficking? And, in turn, how does this illicit economy shape citizens’ political attitudes? Drawing on theories of voting behavior and accountability, as well as research on organized crime, I argue that some voters willingly support narco-linked candidates when they perceive that the benefits of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) outweigh the costs. Further, given that these criminal organizations need structures, clear chains of command, and secrecy to keep business as usual, I contend that living in areas of known DTOs' presence makes citizens more accustomed to vertical authority structures, leading to lower support for democracy and trust in elections. Experimental evidence from Peru shows that, beyond lack of information, citizens support narco-linked candidates due to security benefits, whereas a case study of Monzón Valley, and a comparative analysis in the Andes indicate that economic goods also matter. Finally, results suggest that awareness of DTOs’ presence predicts lower support for democracy and trust in elections.