| dc.description.abstract | This dissertation examines the political and violent implications of organized crime. The first essay, "Does 'Green Gold' Breed Bloody Violence? The Effect of Export Shocks on Criminal Violence in Mexico," explores the impact of export shocks in the avocado industry on Mexico's criminal violence. Over recent decades, Mexico has witnessed a significant surge in avocado exports, coinciding with a record-high homicide rate attributed to violent drug trafficking organizations. I utilized an instrumental variable approach to empirically assess if the increasing avocado exports significantly contribute to the rising homicide rate, exploiting exogenous variations in weather conditions that affect agricultural crop yields. Contrary to the general trend of increasing violence, I discovered that an increase in avocado production decreases crime, supporting the opportunity cost effect theory. The second essay, "A Model of State-Crime Relations: Theory and Case Study," delves into the logic that determines the government's response to organized crime groups (OCGs). I argue that the government's stance towards OCGs is influenced by its survival prospects and the costs of overlooking OCGs' activities. The central point of my discussion revolves around the "illicit benefits" that ordinary citizens receive from OCGs, demonstrating how variations in these benefits can sway the government's response to OCGs. I validate these theoretical predictions by analyzing the case of the Shanghai Green Gang and a Yakuza Gang in post-war Japan. The third essay, "A Model of State-Crime Relations: Evidence from Canada," empirically evaluates the theoretical predictions presented in the second essay. I selected the Canadian construction industry as a testing ground due to its well-documented infiltration by the mafia and the noted collusion between this criminal organization and politicians. I conducted three empirical tests to evaluate the theoretical predictions and found suggestive evidence that supports the theory. This project improves our understanding of how organized crime groups can persist in democratic societies. | |
