Methods for Scenario Modeling of Post-disaster Temporary Housing
Perrucci, Daniel Victor
The frequency and severity of disasters has recently amplified and is expected to further increase due to climate change, population growth, increasing coastal density, and inadequate disaster preparedness. An opportunity to reduce the human impact from these intensified disasters is through an efficient management of temporary housing units which are utilized to house displaced people until they can return to their pre-disaster residence. This research develops methods that help evaluate temporary housing unit designs and inform demand-based inventories. Furthermore, a novel method is proposed for reducing uncertainty in temporary housing scenario planning. Specifically, a multi-criteria decision model is used to identify the best temporary housing design based on input from experts. Then, a simulation-based scenario inventory management model is developed to determine the stocking inventory for the chosen temporary housing design. An illustrative case study focused on the United States determined that the manufactured home is the best option for the United States and the HHi emergency shelter is useful during humanitarian aid scenarios. Additionally, a larger stocking inventory of manufactured homes helps reduce post-disaster financial risk. Finally, to address the uncertainty in evaluating disasters and modeling assumptions, a novel method is developed that uses drone imagery to assess disaster impact. A synthesis of the research is presented which supplies methods for scenario modeling and planning of post-disaster temporary housing.