Anticipatory Impacts of Light Rail: A Mixed-Methods Study of Gentrification, Displacement, and Individual and Community Well-being

Abstract

As cities invest in light rail and other infrastructure to advance equitable development and address other growth challenges, concerns persist that these projects may deepen inequality in historically marginalized communities. This research investigates early-stage impacts of the Purple Line Light Rail Transit (LRT) near Washington, DC, in Maryland, examining how transit-induced gentrification unfolds in suburban neighborhoods long before service begins. Using a mixed-methods design, the study integrates spatial quasi-experimental analysis, resident surveys, and interviews to assess changes in housing markets, neighborhood conditions, and community well-being. Findings reveal clear evidence of anticipatory gentrification during the construction phase, with significant increases in housing values, rents, and incomes near planned station areas. These changes were spatially uneven, concentrating investment around transit hubs while generating instability in nearby neighborhoods. Residents experienced these shifts in different ways, with higher-income homeowners often embracing the investment as neighborhood improvement, while renters, immigrants, and low-income residents reported heightened stress, weakened social ties, and a growing sense of both material and symbolic displacement. Perceptions of gentrification, disorder, and fear of crime were closely linked to psychological distress, particularly among women, younger adults, and economically vulnerable groups. Even without physical relocation, many felt emotionally and culturally pushed out, underscoring that displacement is not only economic and spatial, but also deeply affective. These results challenge assumptions of uniformly positive development outcomes and highlight the need for trauma-informed, equity-driven approaches to transit planning. By centering community experience and employing a multi-scalar, mixed-methods approach, this dissertation expands the conceptual and methodological boundaries of transit-oriented development research. It calls for early interventions to prevent displacement, strengthen community resilience, and ensure that the benefits of public investment are distributed equitably.