The Politics of Military Deployments

Abstract

How do domestic politics shape decisions to deploy U.S. service members worldwide? This dissertation seeks to explain where America's sons and daughters go, and why. It endeavors to understand the relative influence of domestic political factors--both behavioral and institutional--that drive military presence abroad. How group identity, the public, and elites shape deployment decisions has implications for the conduct of U.S. leadership in world affairs--and the peace or war that follows. Chapter 2 describes three primary gaps in American deployment attitudes. Its key finding is that White House officials and members of Congress and their staffers are considerably more interventionist than the people they represent. Chapter 3 focuses on group identity and its shaping of deployment attitudes. Using Chicago Council on Global Affairs public opinion data on long-term basing overseas, it offers an explanation for a proximal military community effect that favors U.S. primacy for closer survey respondents, even if they do not serve or are related to someone who does. Chapter 4 explores the link between public attitudes and foreign policy decisions. It predicts and finds a null relationship between mass opinion on deployments to countries and the adjoining troop levels in those countries. Finally, Chapter 5 evaluates the political conditions under which commanders-in-chief intervene in military policymaking on deployments. An analysis of troops deployed or stationed abroad by country from 1952 to 2022 shows that divided government changes party preferences for deployments and weighs on a president's willingness to accept or ignore Department of Defense advice. A ruling party, its power across government, and its stake in defense policy ownership influence precise troop levels--with notable implications for the consistency and predictability of American foreign policy.