A Disease Age Structured Model of Epidemic Population Dynamics with Public Health Interventions

Abstract

The work in this dissertation is about modeling the spread of an infectious disease in a closed community with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. Our aim is to evaluate the efficacy of tracing and quarantine strategies which are believed to be an important aspect of controlling an outbreak of emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases. The model is applicable in both emerging epidemics that require isolation, tracing, and quarantine, such as H1N1, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), and influenzas, and re-emerging epidemics that requires isolation and certain vaccination strategies, such as a smallpox bioterrorist attack. Moreover, our model can be applied as a rational basis for decision makers to guide interventions and deploy public health resources in future epidemics.