The Economic and Health Effects of Indoor Radon

Abstract

Radon, a radioactive noble gas, ranks as the second leading cause of lung cancer. A data-generating process model is constructed to capture the underlying factors driving indoor radon exposures, enabling the development of a predictive map of long-term indoor radon concentrations for 74 million single-family homes in Zillow's ZTRAX database. Notably, this predictive model generates the first-ever national map of mean long-term indoor radon concentrations at the census tract level. Using the predictive model, the effects of predicted cumulative indoor radon exposure on lung cancer risk are evaluated for a population of 700,000 veterans residing in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee between 2001 and 2021. The findings reveal a significant increase in the probability of developing lung cancer, even at relatively low levels of average yearly radon concentrations. These results emphasize the importance of considering cumulative radon exposure as a key factor in assessing lung cancer risk. Furthermore, the predictive model is utilized to estimate the implicit price of radon in the housing market of Davidson County, Tennessee, from 2001 to 2018. The analysis uncovers significant price effects, with homebuyers willing to pay around $3500 less for properties exhibiting elevated predicted short-term indoor radon concentrations. The developed predictive model and predictive maps offer a powerful tool for assessing radon-related risks and guiding targeted mitigation efforts. These findings underscore the importance of radon awareness, mitigation, and policy measures to reduce the burden of radon-attributed lung cancer.