\chapter{Appendix} \label{Appendix}
%\vspace{-7mm}
%\bigskip

\section{Chapter 2 Appendix}

\subsection{Transition Frequency Tables}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Obama Transition Frequency Table}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/obama_transition_freq.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
\item[*] \textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the number of transitions observed across all quarters from the Obama administration, with the origin state on the y-axis of the table and the destination state on the x-axis of the table. For example, there are 118 observations of the transition from State 1 to State 2 and 78 observations of positions remaining in State 3 across quarters.
\end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Trump Transition Frequency Table}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/trump_transition_ffreq.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
    \item[*]\textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the number of transitions observed across all quarters from the Trump administration, with the origin state on the y-axis of the table and the destination state on the x-axis of the table. For example, there are 65 observations of the transition from State 1 to State 3 and 50 observations of positions remaining in State 4 across quarters.
    \end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Biden Transition Frequency Table}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/biden_transition_freq.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
    \item[*]\textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the number of transitions observed across all quarters from the Biden administration, with the origin state on the y-axis of the table and the destination state on the x-axis of the table. For example, there are 11 observations of the transition from State 2 to State 4 and 390 observations of positions remaining in State 1 across quarters.
    \end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\subsection{Transition Probability Matrices}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Obama One-Quarter (90-Day) Transition Probability Matrix}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/obama_transition_prob.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
\item[*] \textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the probability of a position in the Obama administration being in a particular state in 90 days conditional on the origin state. The origin state is on the y-axis of the table and the destination state is on the x-axis of the table. For example, if a position is within State 1, there is a 9.4\% chance that the position will be in State 3 in 90 days.
\end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Trump One-Quarter (90-Day) Transition Probability Matrix}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/trump_transition_prob.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
    \item[*]\textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the probability of a position in the Trump administration being in a particular state in 90 days conditional on the origin state. The origin state is on the y-axis of the table and the destination state is on the x-axis of the table. For example, if a position is within State 1, there is a 66.7\% chance that the position will still be in State 1 in 90 days.
    \end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Biden One-Quarter (90-Day) Transition Probability Matrix}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/biden_transition_prob.jpg}
    \begin{tablenotes}
    \item[*]\textbf{Note:} Each cell represents the probability of a position in the Biden administration being in a particular state in 90 days conditional on the origin state. The origin state is on the y-axis of the table and the destination state is on the x-axis of the table. For example, if a position is within State 1, there is a 4.9\% chance that the position will still be in State 5 in 90 days.
    \end{tablenotes}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\subsection{President Subset Models}

\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Presidential Appointment Status Change Probabilities (Obama Administration): Default Acting Officials to Non-Default Acting Officials to Confirmed Nominees} 
  \label{} 
\scriptsize
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{6}{c}{\textit{Type of Transition}} \\ 
\cline{2-7} 
\\[-1.8ex] 
& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Strategic Acting} &\multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Nomination}& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Confirmation}\\
& 1 to 3 & 2 to 4 & 1 to 2 & 3 to 4 & 2 to 5 & 4 to 5 \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 Ideological Opponent & 1.535 &  0.606 & 0.847 & 2.554$^{**}$ & 0.996 & 0.996 \\ 
  & (0.873, 2.699) & (0.070, 5.217) & (0.590, 1.215)  & (1.163, 5.606) & (0.684, 1.449) & (0.423, 2.344) \\ 
  & & & & & & \\ 
 Priority Agency & 1.303 & 1.974 & 1.502$^{**}$ & 0.715 & 0.879 & 1.245 \\ 
  & (0.752, 2.258) & (0.244, 15.942) & (1.096, 2.059) & (0.331, 1.544) & (0.623, 1.240) & (0.526, 2.949) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
 High-Status & 1.971 & 0.348 & 1.547$^{*}$ & 1.920 & 3.685$^{**}$ & 2.268 \\ 
  & (0.865, 4.490) & (0.002, 59.512) & (0.928, 2.578) & (0.630, 5.856) & (2.454, 5.533) & (0.542, 9.497) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
Observations & 1,400 & 1,400 & 1,400 & 1,400 & 1,400 & 1,400 \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\end{tabular} 
    \begin{tablenotes}
\item[*] \textbf{Note:} Due to the smaller number of observed transitions for each transition type and the large number of parameters that need to be estimated, the model would not
converge with too many covariates. Therefore, this model only includes controls for Cabinet and Chair Ideology (not reported in table). Below each hazard ratio, the 95\% confidence interval is reported. Hazard ratios significant at the 0.1 p-value threshold are denoted with *, and those significant at the 0.05 p-value threshold are denoted with **.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{table} 


\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Presidential Appointment Status Change Probabilities (Trump Administration): Default Acting Officials to Non-Default Acting Officials to Confirmed Nominees} 
  \label{} 
\scriptsize
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{6}{c}{\textit{Type of Transition}} \\ 
\cline{2-7} 
\\[-1.8ex] 
& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Strategic Acting} &\multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Nomination}& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Confirmation}\\
& 1 to 3 & 2 to 4 & 1 to 2 & 3 to 4 & 2 to 5 & 4 to 5 \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 Ideological Opponent & 1.272 &  4.077$^{*}$ & 0.624$^{**}$ & 0.795 & 0.940 & 0.789 \\ 
  & (0.667, 2.425) & (0.858, 19.364) & (0.416, 0.936)  & (0.298, 2.124) & (0.507, 1.744) & (0.128, 4.851) \\ 
  & & & & & & \\ 
 Ideological Ally & 1.119 & 2.292 & 1.031 & 0.635 & 0.930 & 2.138 \\ 
  & (0.558, 2.246) & (0.492, 10.681) & (0.691, 1.538) & (0.200, 2.013) & (0.536, 1.614) & (0.411, 11.115) \\ 
  & & & & & & \\ 
 Priority Agency & 1.262 & 1.420 & 1.316 & 0.623 & 1.280 & 0.583 \\ 
  & (0.579, 2.752) & (0.384, 5.244) & (0.774, 2.236) & (0.194, 2.005) & (0.620, 2.642) & (0.197, 1.723) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
 High-Status & 2.320$^{*}$ & 2.115$^{*}$ & 3.006$^{**}$ & 6.896$^{**}$ & 2.165$^{**}$ & 2.151$^{**}$ \\ 
  & (0.949, 5.671) & (0.876, 5.107) & (1.811, 4.990) & (2.634, 18.057) & (1.343, 3.489) & (1.048, 4.418) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
Observations & 2,005 & 2,005 & 2,005 & 2,005 & 2,005 & 2,005 \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\end{tabular} 
    \begin{tablenotes}
\item[*] \textbf{Note:} Due to the smaller number of observed transitions for each transition type and the large number of parameters that need to be estimated, the model would not
converge with too many covariates. Therefore, this model only includes controls for Cabinet and Chair Ideology (not reported in table). Below each hazard ratio, the 95\% confidence interval is reported. Hazard ratios significant at the 0.1 p-value threshold are denoted with *, and those significant at the 0.05 p-value threshold are denoted with **.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{table} 


\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Presidential Appointment Status Change Probabilities (Biden Administration): Default Acting Officials to Non-Default Acting Officials to Confirmed Nominees} 
  \label{} 
\scriptsize
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{6}{c}{\textit{Type of Transition}} \\ 
\cline{2-7} 
\\[-1.8ex] 
& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Strategic Acting} &\multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Nomination}& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Transition to Confirmation}\\
& 1 to 3 & 2 to 4 & 1 to 2 & 3 to 4 & 2 to 5 & 4 to 5 \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 Ideological Opponent & 1.003 &  7.711 & 1.078 & 1.250 & 1.121 & 1.729 \\ 
  & (0.604, 1.665) & (0.221, 269.229) & (0.667, 1.744)  & (0.626, 2.493) & (0.649, 1.934) & (0.716, 6.245) \\ 
  & & & & & & \\ 
 Ideological Ally & 0.964 & 9.996 & 1.150 & 1.465 & 0.893 & 2.794$^{**}$ \\ 
  & (0.590, 1.576) & (0.297, 335.876) & (0.725, 1.822) & (0.824, 2.604) & (0.522, 1.527) & (1.102, 7.087) \\ 
  & & & & & & \\ 
 Priority Agency & 1.758$^{**}$ & 0.883 & 0.972 & 0.810 & 0.917 & 0.826 \\ 
  & (1.174, 2.633) & (0.192, 4.053) & (0.658, 1.436) & (0.461, 1.421) & (0.591, 1.422) & (0.392, 1.739) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
 High-Status & 3.633$^{**}$ & 5.448$^{**}$ & 2.184$^{*}$ & 1.724 & 3.447$^{**}$ & 3.156$^{**}$ \\ 
  & (1.788, 7.382) & (1.292, 22.968) & (0.991, 4.813) & (0.835, 3.558) & (2.208, 5.383) & (1.316, 7.567) \\ 
  & & & & & &\\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
Observations & 1,580 & 1,580 & 1,580 & 1,580 & 1,580 & 1,580 \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\end{tabular} 
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[*] \textbf{Note:} Due to the smaller number of observed transitions for each transition type and the large number of parameters that need to be estimated, the model would not
converge with too many covariates. Therefore, this model only includes controls for Cabinet and Chair Ideology (not reported in table). Below each hazard ratio, the 95\% confidence interval is reported. Hazard ratios significant at the 0.1 p-value threshold are denoted with *, and those significant at the 0.05 p-value threshold are denoted with **.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{table} 

\clearpage
\section{Chapter 3 Appendix}

\subsection{Models of Priority Goal Elimination}

\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Models of Priority Goal Elimination} 
  \label{} 
  \tiny
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\textit{Dependent variable:}} \\ 
\cline{2-5} 
\\[-1.8ex] & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Priority Goal Elimination} \\ 
\\[-1.8ex] & (1) & (2) & (3) & (4)\\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 Administration Change & 1.450$^{***}$ & 1.740$^{*}$ & 0.544 & 0.760 \\ 
  & (0.317) & (0.961) & (1.620) & (1.630) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 \% Confirmed End Y1 &  & 0.590 & 0.192 & 0.434 \\ 
  &  & (1.187) & (1.602) & (1.643) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Conservative &  &  & 0.888 & 1.191 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.708) & (0.805) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Liberal &  &  & $-$0.097 & $-$0.071 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.727) & (0.734) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 SMOG &  &  &  & 0.007 \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.021) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Department &  &  &  & 0.242 \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.436) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Log Employment &  &  &  & $-$0.190 \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.170) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Administration Change:\% Confirmed End Y1 &  & $-$0.269 & 0.407 & 0.247 \\ 
  &  & (1.535) & (1.917) & (1.925) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Administration Change:Conservative &  &  & 0.280 & 0.186 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.994) & (0.998) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Administration Change:Liberal &  &  & 1.255 & 1.173 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.937) & (0.939) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Constant & $-$0.916$^{***}$ & $-$1.327 & $-$1.167 & 0.201 \\ 
  & (0.232) & (0.863) & (1.469) & (2.069) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
Observations & 183 & 183 & 183 & 183 \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\textit{Note:}  & \multicolumn{4}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\ 
\end{tabular} 
\end{table}


\subsection{Multinomial Models of Strategic Goal Change}

\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Multinomial Models of Strategic Goal Change} 
  \label{} 
  \footnotesize
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccccccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{8}{c}{\textit{Dependent variable:}} \\ 
\cline{2-9} 
\\[-1.8ex] & Changed & Eliminated & Changed & Eliminated & Changed & Eliminated & Changed & Eliminated \\ 
\\[-1.8ex] & Model 1 &  & Model 2 &  & Model 3 & & Model 4 & \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 \% Confirmed End Y1 & 2.942$^{***}$ & 3.490$^{***}$ & 2.237$^{***}$ & 2.722$^{***}$ & 2.076$^{***}$ & 2.586$^{***}$ & 0.633 & 1.489$^{*}$ \\ 
  & (0.685) & (0.852) & (0.738) & (0.900) & (0.734) & (0.891) & (0.788) & (0.905) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Conservative &  &  & 1.197$^{**}$ & 0.912 & 1.127$^{*}$ & 0.875 & 0.979 & 0.858 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.591) & (0.705) & (0.596) & (0.708) & (0.679) & (0.769) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Liberal &  &  & 0.531 & 0.246 & 0.495 & 0.160 & $-$0.071 & $-$0.435 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.352) & (0.476) & (0.360) & (0.484) & (0.409) & (0.536) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Priority Goal &  &  &  &  & 1.017 & 0.390 & $-$0.002 & $-$0.563 \\ 
  &  &  &  &  & (0.689) & (0.875) & (0.891) & (1.046) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 SMOG &  &  &  &  & $-$0.014 & $-$0.027 & 0.005 & $-$0.010 \\ 
  &  &  &  &  & (0.015) & (0.022) & (0.017) & (0.022) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Department &  &  &  &  &  &  & 1.165 & 2.414$^{**}$ \\ 
  &  &  &  &  &  &  & (0.775) & (0.956) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Board or Commission &  &  &  &  &  &  & $-$0.959$^{**}$ & $-$0.276 \\ 
  &  &  &  &  &  &  & (0.440) & (0.602) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Log Employment &  &  &  &  &  &  & 0.311$^{***}$ & 0.051 \\ 
  &  &  &  &  &  &  & (0.108) & (0.141) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
 Constant & $-$0.427$^{**}$ & $-$1.678$^{***}$ & $-$0.612$^{**}$ & $-$1.613$^{***}$ & $-$0.322 & $-$0.961 & $-$2.217$^{**}$ & $-$1.450 \\ 
  & (0.199) & (0.301) & (0.275) & (0.383) & (0.476) & (0.640) & (0.959) & (1.195) \\ 
  & & & & & & & & \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\textit{Note:}  & \multicolumn{8}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\ 
\end{tabular} 
\end{table} 

\subsection{Models of Strategic Goal Elimination}

\begin{table}[H] \centering 
  \caption{Models of Strategic Goal Elimination} 
  \label{} 
\footnotesize
\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccc} 
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\textit{Dependent variable:}} \\ 
\cline{2-5} 
\\[-1.8ex] & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Strategic Goal Elimination} \\ 
\\[-1.8ex] & (1) & (2) & (3) & (4)\\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
 \% Confirmed End Y1  & 1.586$^{**}$ & 1.295$^{*}$ & 1.290$^{*}$ & 1.162 \\ 
  & (0.669) & (0.719) & (0.719) & (0.797) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Conservative &  & 0.118 & 0.122 & 0.082 \\ 
  &  & (0.543) & (0.548) & (0.601) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Liberal &  & $-$0.030 & $-$0.101 & $-$0.311 \\ 
  &  & (0.434) & (0.441) & (0.474) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Priority Goal &  &  & $-$0.366 & $-$0.662 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.671) & (0.710) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 SMOG &  &  & $-$0.020 & $-$0.017 \\ 
  &  &  & (0.020) & (0.020) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Department &  &  &  & 1.243$^{*}$ \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.707) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Board or Commission &  &  &  & 0.254 \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.564) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Log Employment &  &  &  & $-$0.117 \\ 
  &  &  &  & (0.130) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
 Constant & $-$2.126$^{***}$ & $-$1.980$^{***}$ & $-$1.482$^{**}$ & $-$0.968 \\ 
  & (0.281) & (0.358) & (0.588) & (1.093) \\ 
  & & & & \\ 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
Observations & 219 & 203 & 203 & 203 \\ 
\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\textit{Note:}  & \multicolumn{4}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\ 
\end{tabular} 
\end{table} 

\subsection{Coding of Agency Priority, Trump Administration, 2017}
\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Coding of Agency Priority, Trump Administration, 2017}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/appendix_priority_coding1.jpg}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/appendix_priority_coding2.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\clearpage
\section{Chapter 4 Appendix}

\subsection{Additional Information on the Survey on the Future of Government Service}

I use the results from the 2007, 2014, and 2020 Survey on the Future of Government Service (SFGS), an online and paper survey of US-based federal executive.\footnote{See \url{sfgs.princeton.edu}}  This includes all political appointees, career members of the SES, and senior Foreign Service officers serving domestically. The survey sample also included other high-level managers that administered key programs or offices. The response rates were 33\% (2,225 of 6,690), 24\% (3,551 of 14,698), and 9.1\% (1,485 of 16,232) for the 2007, 2014, and 2020 surveys respectively. All analysis includes survey weights to ensure that survey responses are representative of the target population.\footnote{Survey researchers created post-stratification weights using iterative proportional fitting. They used the sample drawn from the Leadership Directories’ Federal Government database to create population marginals. The characteristics they used for weighting are: 1) Whether a respondent worked in the DC area (the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia); 2) Position type (political appointees, career members of the SES, member of the Senior Foreign Service, and career civil servant); 3) Workplace location in the executive branch (the Executive Office of the President, each cabinet department, and independent agencies (as a unit)).} 

Respondents were asked: “In general, how much influence do you think the following groups [White House; political appointees; OMB] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” Respondents were given a sliding scale from 1-None to 5-A great deal. They could also indicate a “Don’t know” response. Respondents selected a workplace from a dropdown menu at the start of the survey and this workplace replaced the [your agency] portion of the question above.


\subsection{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample Part 1}
    \includegraphics[width=13cm]{Figures/chapter4_agency_sample1.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample Part 2}
    \includegraphics[width=13cm]{Figures/chapter4_agency_sample2.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample Part 3}
    \includegraphics[width=13cm]{Figures/chapter4_agency_sample3.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample Part 4}
    \includegraphics[width=13cm]{Figures/chapter4_agency_sample4.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Agency-Year Pairings Included in the Sample Part 5}
    \includegraphics[width=13cm]{Figures/chapter4_agency_sample5.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\subsection{Models of Presidential Agent Influence}

\subsubsection{Models of Political Appointee Influence}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Models of Political Appointee Influence}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $0.0010$        & $0.0016$        & $0.0079$       & $-0.0016$               & $0.0017$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0028)$      & $(0.0009)$      & $(0.0049)$     & $(0.0023)$              & $(0.0034)$      \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                 & $-0.0007$       &                &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 & $(0.0032)$      &                &                         &                 \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                 &                 & $0.0074^{**}$  &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0029)$     &                         &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                 &                 & $-0.0004^{*}$  &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0002)$     &                         &                 \\
Politicization \%                                          &                 &                 &                & $0.0052$                &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0063)$              &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                 &                 &                & $0.0004^{*}$            &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0002)$              &                 \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                 &                 &                &                         & $0.1894^{*}$    \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                         & $(0.1014)$      \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                 &                 &                &                         & $-0.0037$       \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                         & $(0.0038)$      \\
Priority                                                   & $0.0910^{*}$    & $0.0924$        & $0.0617$       & $0.0725$                & $0.0740$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0507)$      & $(0.0554)$      & $(0.0663)$     & $(0.0552)$              & $(0.0520)$      \\
EOP                                                        & $0.4313^{***}$  & $0.4397^{***}$  &                & $0.1167$                & $0.4437^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0669)$      & $(0.0431)$      &                & $(0.2463)$              & $(0.0642)$      \\
Department                                                 & $0.2816^{***}$  & $0.2920^{***}$  &                & $0.2976^{***}$          & $0.2935^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0770)$      & $(0.0693)$      &                & $(0.0661)$              & $(0.0916)$      \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.3676^{***}$ & $-0.3624^{***}$ &                & $-0.3932^{***}$         & $-0.3797^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0749)$      & $(0.0855)$      &                & $(0.0649)$              & $(0.0871)$      \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.0978$        & $0.0970^{*}$    & $0.0898$       & $0.0664$                & $0.0958$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0561)$      & $(0.0549)$      & $(0.0659)$     & $(0.0597)$              & $(0.0560)$      \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.1136$        & $0.1170$        & $0.1111$       & $-0.1763$               & $0.1119$        \\
                                                           & $(0.2685)$      & $(0.2679)$      & $(0.2982)$     & $(0.2088)$              & $(0.2781)$      \\
Obama                                                      & $-0.0976$       & $-0.0982^{*}$   & $-0.1195^{*}$  & $-0.0659$               & $-0.1148^{*}$   \\
                                                           & $(0.0562)$      & $(0.0551)$      & $(0.0576)$     & $(0.0562)$              & $(0.0576)$      \\
Trump                                                      & $-0.0824$       & $-0.0825$       & $-0.0600$      & $-0.0707$               & $-0.0895$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0610)$      & $(0.0611)$      & $(0.0883)$     & $(0.0599)$              & $(0.0592)$      \\
Constant                                                   & $3.2065^{***}$  & $3.1935^{***}$  & $3.0274^{***}$ & $3.2509^{***}$          & $3.1878^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0640)$      & $(0.0675)$      & $(0.0671)$     & $(0.0674)$              & $(0.0666)$      \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.0999$        & $0.1000$        & $0.0645$       & $0.1404$                & $0.1113$        \\
N                                                      & $230$           & $230$           & $167$          & $198$                   & $230$           \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [political appointees] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsubsection{Models of OMB Influence}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Models of OMB Influence}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0041$      & $-0.0102^{***}$ & $-0.0007$      & $-0.0071^{**}$  & $-0.0038$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0025)$     & $(0.0015)$      & $(0.0046)$     & $(0.0025)$      & $(0.0033)$     \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                & $0.0075^{***}$  &                &                 &                \\
                                                           &                & $(0.0020)$      &                &                 &                \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                &                 & $0.0053$       &                 &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0054)$     &                 &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                &                 & $-0.0001$      &                 &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0002)$     &                 &                \\
Politicization \%                                          &                &                 &                & $-0.0272^{***}$ &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0086)$      &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                &                 &                & $0.0018^{***}$  &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0003)$      &                \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                &                 &                &                 & $0.0634$       \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                 & $(0.0744)$     \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                &                 &                &                 & $-0.0014$      \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                 & $(0.0036)$     \\
Priority                                                   & $-0.0300$      & $-0.0479$       & $-0.1017$      & $-0.0917$       & $-0.0349$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0752)$     & $(0.0706)$      & $(0.0798)$     & $(0.0769)$      & $(0.0766)$     \\
Department                                                 & $-0.1742$      & $-0.2782^{**}$  &                & $-0.1570$       & $-0.1707$      \\
                                                           & $(0.1366)$     & $(0.1234)$      &                & $(0.1075)$      & $(0.1400)$     \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.0496$      & $-0.1017$       &                & $-0.0620$       & $-0.0532$      \\
                                                           & $(0.1297)$     & $(0.1399)$      &                & $(0.1098)$      & $(0.1323)$     \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.0175$       & $0.0241$        & $0.0796$       & $-0.0414$       & $0.0173$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0647)$     & $(0.0615)$      & $(0.0621)$     & $(0.0643)$      & $(0.0674)$     \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.2901$       & $0.2558$        & $0.4028^{*}$   & $0.3488$        & $0.2878$       \\
                                                           & $(0.2324)$     & $(0.2443)$      & $(0.2001)$     & $(0.2083)$      & $(0.2327)$     \\
Obama                                                      & $-0.2112^{**}$ & $-0.2066^{**}$  & $-0.2085^{**}$ & $-0.2286^{**}$  & $-0.2163^{**}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0747)$     & $(0.0756)$      & $(0.0869)$     & $(0.0818)$      & $(0.0753)$     \\
Trump                                                      & $-0.1021$      & $-0.1023$       & $-0.1343$      & $-0.0713$       & $-0.1031$      \\
                                                           & $(0.1105)$     & $(0.1079)$      & $(0.1367)$     & $(0.1014)$      & $(0.1088)$     \\
Constant                                                   & $3.4015^{***}$ & $3.5324^{***}$  & $3.0707^{***}$ & $3.4892^{***}$  & $3.3949^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0658)$     & $(0.0517)$      & $(0.1406)$     & $(0.0732)$      & $(0.0742)$     \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.1005$       & $0.1106$        & $0.0840$       & $0.1548$        & $0.1017$       \\
N                                                       & $220$          & $220$           & $163$          & $190$           & $220$          \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [OMB] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsubsection{Models of Agency Policy Agenda Change}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Models of Agency Policy Agenda Change}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0032$       & $-0.0103^{***}$ & $-0.0005$      & $-0.0038$               & $0.0011$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0027)$      & $(0.0020)$      & $(0.0069)$     & $(0.0027)$              & $(0.0046)$      \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                 & $0.0084^{**}$   &                &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 & $(0.0030)$      &                &                         &                 \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                 &                 & $0.0040$       &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0080)$     &                         &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                 &                 & $-0.0001$      &                         &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0003)$     &                         &                 \\
Politicization \%                                          &                 &                 &                & $0.0069$                &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0199)$              &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                 &                 &                & $0.0003$                &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0007)$              &                 \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                 &                 &                &                         & $0.0082$        \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                         & $(0.1725)$      \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                 &                 &                &                         & $-0.0069$       \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                         & $(0.0055)$      \\
Priority                                                   & $0.3554^{**}$   & $0.3475^{**}$   & $0.3432^{*}$   & $0.3375^{**}$           & $0.4083^{**}$   \\
                                                           & $(0.1261)$      & $(0.1278)$      & $(0.1704)$     & $(0.1354)$              & $(0.1393)$      \\
EOP                                                        & $0.7852^{***}$  & $0.6374^{***}$  &                & $0.3617$                & $0.7923^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1196)$      & $(0.0788)$      &                & $(0.9492)$              & $(0.1038)$      \\
Department                                                 & $0.8429^{***}$  & $0.6779^{***}$  &                & $0.8444^{***}$          & $0.8797^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1054)$      & $(0.1078)$      &                & $(0.1077)$              & $(0.1266)$      \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.9049^{***}$ & $-0.9881^{***}$ &                & $-0.9621^{***}$         & $-0.9637^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1329)$      & $(0.1251)$      &                & $(0.1332)$              & $(0.1434)$      \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.4315^{***}$  & $0.4470^{***}$  & $0.5529^{***}$ & $0.3596^{**}$           & $0.4598^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1005)$      & $(0.0978)$      & $(0.1319)$     & $(0.1293)$              & $(0.0864)$      \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.2378$        & $0.2385$        & $0.3183$       & $-0.0137$               & $0.2120$        \\
                                                           & $(0.4129)$      & $(0.3945)$      & $(0.5073)$     & $(0.4267)$              & $(0.3978)$      \\
Constant                                                   & $1.8345^{***}$  & $2.0330^{***}$  & $1.6157^{***}$ & $1.8729^{***}$          & $1.7657^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0886)$      & $(0.0823)$      & $(0.2409)$     & $(0.0955)$              & $(0.0782)$      \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.4482$        & $0.4570$        & $0.2394$       & $0.5132$                & $0.4839$        \\
N                                                       & $64$            & $64$            & $45$           & $56$                    & $64$            \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “Some agencies’ policy agendas changed after the inauguration of President Trump. Other agencies’ policy agendas stayed the same. In your experience, how much did the policy agenda of [your agency] change after the inauguration?”  (0-3). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsection{Models of Careerist Only Perceptions of White House Influence}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Models of Careerist Only Perceptions of White House Influence}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0026$      & $-0.0156^{***}$ & $-0.0038$      & $-0.0043$      & $-0.0006$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0034)$     & $(0.0016)$      & $(0.0042)$     & $(0.0038)$     & $(0.0044)$     \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                & $0.0151^{***}$  &                &                &                \\
                                                           &                & $(0.0021)$      &                &                &                \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                &                 & $-0.0119$      &                &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0077)$     &                &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                &                 & $0.0002$       &                &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0002)$     &                &                \\
Politicization \%                                          &                &                 &                & $0.0122$       &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0139)$     &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                &                 &                & $0.0009^{*}$   &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0005)$     &                \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                &                 &                &                & $0.3290^{**}$  \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                & $(0.1434)$     \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                &                 &                &                & $-0.0082$      \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                & $(0.0056)$     \\
Priority                                                   & $-0.0363$      & $-0.0627$       & $-0.0455$      & $-0.1047$      & $-0.0301$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0796)$     & $(0.0767)$      & $(0.0750)$     & $(0.0986)$     & $(0.0828)$     \\
EOP                                                        & $0.8463^{***}$ & $0.6961^{***}$  &                & $-0.1050$      & $0.8458^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0570)$     & $(0.0366)$      &                & $(0.5738)$     & $(0.0540)$     \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.0910$      & $-0.3818^{***}$ &                & $-0.0928$      & $-0.0915$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0695)$     & $(0.0869)$      &                & $(0.0586)$     & $(0.0656)$     \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.0977$       & $0.1140$        & $0.0517$       & $0.0656$       & $0.1025$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0772)$     & $(0.0770)$      & $(0.0924)$     & $(0.0750)$     & $(0.0750)$     \\
Obama                                                      & $0.0496$       & $0.0695$        & $0.0988$       & $0.0461$       & $0.0229$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0749)$     & $(0.0820)$      & $(0.0946)$     & $(0.0868)$     & $(0.0726)$     \\
Trump                                                      & $0.1422$       & $0.1592$        & $0.2139$       & $0.2022$       & $0.1264$       \\
                                                           & $(0.1144)$     & $(0.1138)$      & $(0.1576)$     & $(0.1323)$     & $(0.1064)$     \\
Constant                                                   & $3.0041^{***}$ & $3.2456^{***}$  & $3.0190^{***}$ & $2.9628^{***}$ & $2.9493^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0665)$     & $(0.0522)$      & $(0.1294)$     & $(0.0924)$     & $(0.0815)$     \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
R$^2$                                                                  & $0.0843$       & $0.1072$        & $0.0372$       & $0.1383$       & $0.1033$       \\
N                                                              & $196$          & $196$           & $178$          & $168$          & $196$          \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsection{Alternate Model Specifications and Robustness Checks}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models Priority Agency Subset}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $0.0031$       & $-0.0006$              & $0.0211^{***}$ & $-0.0012$      & $0.0071$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0055)$     & $(0.0042)$             & $(0.0050)$     & $(0.0067)$     & $(0.0043)$     \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                & $0.0040$               &                &                &                \\
                                                           &                & $(0.0082)$             &                &                &                \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                &                        & $0.0044$       &                &                \\
                                                           &                &                        & $(0.0194)$     &                &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                &                        & $-0.0009^{**}$ &                &                \\
                                                           &                &                        & $(0.0003)$     &                &                \\
Politicization \%                                          &                &                        &                & $0.0082$       &                \\
                                                           &                &                        &                & $(0.0154)$     &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                &                        &                & $0.0007$       &                \\
                                                           &                &                        &                & $(0.0006)$     &                \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                &                        &                &                & $0.2947$       \\
                                                           &                &                        &                &                & $(0.3107)$     \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                &                        &                &                & $-0.0097$      \\
                                                           &                &                        &                &                & $(0.0097)$     \\
EOP                                                        & $0.6247^{***}$ & $0.5998^{***}$         &                & $-0.1658$      & $0.6275^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0689)$     & $(0.0949)$             &                & $(0.6462)$     & $(0.0742)$     \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.2253^{*}$  & $-0.2863$              &                & $-0.2893^{*}$  & $-0.2316^{*}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1277)$     & $(0.2078)$             &                & $(0.1592)$     & $(0.1301)$     \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.0964$       & $0.1046$               & $0.1611$       & $-0.0248$      & $0.1320$       \\
                                                           & $(0.1159)$     & $(0.1276)$             & $(0.1270)$     & $(0.1728)$     & $(0.1182)$     \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.2762$       & $0.2625$               & $0.3870$       & $-0.5941$      & $0.2301$       \\
                                                           & $(0.3450)$     & $(0.3570)$             & $(0.5933)$     & $(0.9876)$     & $(0.3547)$     \\
Obama                                                      & $0.2013$       & $0.2090$               & $0.2118$       & $0.2267$       & $0.1882$       \\
                                                           & $(0.1786)$     & $(0.1861)$             & $(0.2560)$     & $(0.2502)$     & $(0.1828)$     \\
Trump                                                      & $0.5389^{***}$ & $0.5458^{**}$          & $0.8393^{***}$ & $0.5656^{***}$ & $0.4969^{**}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1804)$     & $(0.1873)$             & $(0.2362)$     & $(0.1740)$     & $(0.1853)$     \\
Constant                                                   & $2.8371^{***}$ & $2.8829^{***}$         & $2.3649^{***}$ & $2.9641^{***}$ & $2.7539^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1438)$     & $(0.0935)$             & $(0.3100)$     & $(0.2510)$     & $(0.1422)$     \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.2411$       & $0.2419$               & $0.2690$       & $0.2926$       & $0.2580$       \\
N                                                     & $68$           & $68$                   & $49$           & $60$           & $68$           \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models with P.R. Independence Control \citep{selin_what_2015}}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0039$       & $-0.0133^{***}$ & $0.0031$       & $-0.0046$       & $-0.0019$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0029)$      & $(0.0031)$      & $(0.0048)$     & $(0.0027)$      & $(0.0033)$      \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                 & $0.0125^{***}$  &                &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                 & $(0.0042)$      &                &                 &                 \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                 &                 & $0.0030$       &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0070)$     &                 &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                 &                 & $-0.0002$      &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 & $(0.0003)$     &                 &                 \\
Politicization \%                                          &                 &                 &                & $0.0019$        &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0057)$      &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                 &                 &                & $0.0007^{*}$    &                 \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                & $(0.0004)$      &                 \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                 &                 &                &                 & $0.2420^{**}$   \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                 & $(0.1109)$      \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                 &                 &                &                 & $-0.0077$       \\
                                                           &                 &                 &                &                 & $(0.0050)$      \\
Priority                                                   & $0.1334$        & $0.1219$        & $0.1310$       & $0.0674$        & $0.1239^{*}$    \\
                                                           & $(0.0765)$      & $(0.0789)$      & $(0.1132)$     & $(0.0811)$      & $(0.0680)$      \\
P.R. Ind.                                                  & $-0.2367^{**}$  & $-0.2174^{**}$  & $-0.1805$      & $-0.1912^{**}$  & $-0.2436^{**}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0904)$      & $(0.0815)$      & $(0.1553)$     & $(0.0893)$      & $(0.0911)$      \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.4288^{***}$ & $-0.6325^{***}$ &                & $-0.3941^{***}$ & $-0.4353^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1461)$      & $(0.1543)$      &                & $(0.1330)$      & $(0.1467)$      \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.1307$        & $0.1389$        & $0.1248$       & $0.1014$        & $0.1329$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0880)$      & $(0.0848)$      & $(0.1137)$     & $(0.0884)$      & $(0.0838)$      \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.4898^{**}$   & $0.3525$        & $0.3157$       & $0.3786$        & $0.5038^{**}$   \\
                                                           & $(0.2244)$      & $(0.2056)$      & $(0.1981)$     & $(0.2260)$      & $(0.2275)$      \\
Obama                                                      & $0.1071$        & $0.0983$        & $0.0123$       & $0.0898$        & $0.0965$        \\
                                                           & $(0.1022)$      & $(0.1064)$      & $(0.1034)$     & $(0.0971)$      & $(0.1006)$      \\
Trump                                                      & $0.2820^{**}$   & $0.2548^{**}$   & $0.1896$       & $0.2580^{**}$   & $0.2856^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1028)$      & $(0.1041)$      & $(0.1573)$     & $(0.0919)$      & $(0.0977)$      \\
Constant                                                   & $3.0694^{***}$  & $3.2332^{***}$  & $2.6047^{***}$ & $3.0575^{***}$  & $3.0305^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1770)$      & $(0.2021)$      & $(0.1532)$     & $(0.1665)$      & $(0.1734)$      \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.2115$        & $0.2321$        & $0.0578$       & $0.2302$        & $0.2222$        \\
N                                                      & $202$           & $202$           & $140$          & $191$           & $202$           \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models Bush and Obama Subset}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $0.0017$       & $-0.0224^{***}$ & $0.0105$       & $-0.0022$              & $-0.0001$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0056)$     & $(0.0052)$      & $(0.0072)$     & $(0.0063)$             & $(0.0053)$     \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                & $0.0288^{***}$  &                &                        &                \\
                                                           &                & $(0.0070)$      &                &                        &                \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                &                 & $-0.0047$      &                        &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0108)$     &                        &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                &                 & $-0.0003$      &                        &                \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0006)$     &                        &                \\
Politicization \%                                          &                &                 &                & $0.0005$               &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0101)$             &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                &                 &                & $0.0012^{**}$          &                \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0005)$             &                \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                &                 &                &                        & $0.0282$       \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                        & $(0.1936)$     \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                &                 &                &                        & $0.0077$       \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                        & $(0.0113)$     \\
Priority                                                   & $-0.0490$      & $-0.0858$       & $-0.0709$      & $-0.0760$              & $-0.0748$      \\
                                                           & $(0.1462)$     & $(0.1501)$      & $(0.1889)$     & $(0.1364)$             & $(0.1453)$     \\
EOP                                                        & $0.7798^{***}$ & $0.5869^{***}$  &                & $-0.0049$              & $0.8013^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.0879)$     & $(0.1108)$      &                & $(0.3696)$             & $(0.0874)$     \\
Department                                                 & $0.2387$       & $-0.0604$       &                & $0.3230^{**}$          & $0.2427$       \\
                                                           & $(0.1656)$     & $(0.1699)$      &                & $(0.1421)$             & $(0.1646)$     \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.3895^{**}$ & $-0.5486^{***}$ &                & $-0.5495^{***}$        & $-0.4026^{**}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1665)$     & $(0.1496)$      &                & $(0.1386)$             & $(0.1675)$     \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.1011$       & $0.0800$        & $0.1454$       & $0.0787$               & $0.1098$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0749)$     & $(0.0852)$      & $(0.0902)$     & $(0.0561)$             & $(0.0781)$     \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.4366$       & $0.3412$        & $0.4000$       & $0.0558$               & $0.4032$       \\
                                                           & $(0.2649)$     & $(0.2458)$      & $(0.3389)$     & $(0.2328)$             & $(0.2839)$     \\
Obama                                                      & $0.0545$       & $0.0723$        & $0.0394$       & $0.0473$               & $0.0341$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0766)$     & $(0.0830)$      & $(0.0899)$     & $(0.0895)$             & $(0.0756)$     \\
Constant                                                   & $2.9228^{***}$ & $3.3202^{***}$  & $2.7509^{***}$ & $2.9987^{***}$         & $2.9453^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1042)$     & $(0.1237)$      & $(0.1369)$     & $(0.1222)$             & $(0.1016)$     \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.1329$       & $0.1781$        & $0.0707$       & $0.1821$               & $0.1467$       \\
N                                                       & $159$          & $159$           & $117$          & $137$                  & $159$          \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007 and 2014. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models Trump Subset}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0067^{*}$           & $-0.0025$               & $-0.0030$      & $-0.0062^{*}$   & $-0.0024$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0034)$              & $(0.0021)$              & $(0.0055)$     & $(0.0035)$      & $(0.0049)$      \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                         & $-0.0052$               &                &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                         & $(0.0041)$              &                &                 &                 \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                         &                         & $0.0098$       &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                         &                         & $(0.0106)$     &                 &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                         &                         & $-0.0002$      &                 &                 \\
                                                           &                         &                         & $(0.0003)$     &                 &                 \\
Politicization \%                                          &                         &                         &                & $0.0015$        &                 \\
                                                           &                         &                         &                & $(0.0188)$      &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                         &                         &                & $0.0001$        &                 \\
                                                           &                         &                         &                & $(0.0009)$      &                 \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                         &                         &                &                 & $0.4097$        \\
                                                           &                         &                         &                &                 & $(0.3087)$      \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                         &                         &                &                 & $-0.0123$       \\
                                                           &                         &                         &                &                 & $(0.0076)$      \\
Priority                                                   & $0.5236^{***}$          & $0.5311^{***}$          & $0.5363^{***}$ & $0.5285^{***}$  & $0.4834^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.0929)$              & $(0.0901)$              & $(0.1366)$     & $(0.1112)$      & $(0.1125)$      \\
EOP                                                        & $0.6610^{***}$          & $0.7551^{***}$          &                & $0.6027$        & $0.6401^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1070)$              & $(0.0750)$              &                & $(0.7845)$      & $(0.1054)$      \\
Department                                                 & $0.5967^{***}$          & $0.7037^{***}$          &                & $0.6530^{***}$  & $0.6816^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1293)$              & $(0.0796)$              &                & $(0.1374)$      & $(0.1419)$      \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.5416^{***}$         & $-0.4827^{**}$          &                & $-0.6682^{***}$ & $-0.6139^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1696)$              & $(0.2038)$              &                & $(0.1270)$      & $(0.1843)$      \\
Ideological Opponent                                       & $0.2834$                & $0.2736$                & $0.3235$       & $0.3283$        & $0.3331^{**}$   \\
                                                           & $(0.1639)$              & $(0.1686)$              & $(0.2696)$     & $(0.1865)$      & $(0.1481)$      \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $1.1393^{***}$          & $1.1416^{**}$           & $1.1762^{**}$  & $0.8941^{**}$   & $1.1557^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.3813)$              & $(0.3971)$              & $(0.4284)$     & $(0.3601)$      & $(0.3493)$      \\
Constant                                                   & $2.8555^{***}$          & $2.7290^{***}$          & $2.7183^{***}$ & $2.8065^{***}$  & $2.7225^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1336)$              & $(0.0633)$              & $(0.3192)$     & $(0.1478)$      & $(0.1153)$      \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.3940$                & $0.3980$                & $0.2304$       & $0.4480$        & $0.4238$        \\
N                                                      & $66$                    & $66$                    & $45$           & $58$            & $66$            \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models Ideologically Aligned Agency Subset}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0047$                & $-0.0376^{***}$ & $0.0042$       & $-0.0114$              & $-0.0087$      \\
                                                           & $(0.0088)$               & $(0.0039)$      & $(0.0071)$     & $(0.0103)$             & $(0.0115)$     \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                          & $0.0406^{***}$  &                &                        &                \\
                                                           &                          & $(0.0069)$      &                &                        &                \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                          &                 & $-0.0113$      &                        &                \\
                                                           &                          &                 & $(0.0124)$     &                        &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                          &                 & $-0.0001$      &                        &                \\
                                                           &                          &                 & $(0.0006)$     &                        &                \\
Politicization \%                                          &                          &                 &                & $-0.0267$              &                \\
                                                           &                          &                 &                & $(0.0190)$             &                \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                          &                 &                & $0.0016^{*}$           &                \\
                                                           &                          &                 &                & $(0.0008)$             &                \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                          &                 &                &                        & $0.0340$       \\
                                                           &                          &                 &                &                        & $(0.2427)$     \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                          &                 &                &                        & $0.0088$       \\
                                                           &                          &                 &                &                        & $(0.0119)$     \\
Priority                                                   & $0.1843^{*}$             & $0.0746$        & $0.0504$       & $0.1992^{*}$           & $0.1105$       \\
                                                           & $(0.0941)$               & $(0.1101)$      & $(0.1339)$     & $(0.1054)$             & $(0.0913)$     \\
EOP                                                        & $0.9650^{***}$           & $0.4611^{***}$  &                & $1.4676^{**}$          & $1.0129^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.2019)$               & $(0.1295)$      &                & $(0.5324)$             & $(0.2041)$     \\
Department                                                 & $0.3773$                 & $-0.1094$       &                & $0.3044$               & $0.3945$       \\
                                                           & $(0.2571)$               & $(0.1940)$      &                & $(0.2927)$             & $(0.2749)$     \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.1212$                & $-0.4721^{**}$  &                & $-0.2047$              & $-0.1255$      \\
                                                           & $(0.2660)$               & $(0.1699)$      &                & $(0.2764)$             & $(0.2712)$     \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.7203$                 & $0.4895$        & $0.5568$       & $0.8159$               & $0.7067$       \\
                                                           & $(0.5872)$               & $(0.3607)$      & $(0.4732)$     & $(0.7067)$             & $(0.4988)$     \\
Obama                                                      & $0.1536$                 & $0.1123$        & $0.2143$       & $-0.0246$              & $0.1693$       \\
                                                           & $(0.1517)$               & $(0.1616)$      & $(0.1761)$     & $(0.1391)$             & $(0.1777)$     \\
Trump                                                      & $0.1899$                 & $0.1655$        & $0.4179$       & $0.1549$               & $0.1583$       \\
                                                           & $(0.2131)$               & $(0.2269)$      & $(0.2941)$     & $(0.2398)$             & $(0.2589)$     \\
Constant                                                   & $2.7262^{***}$           & $3.4956^{***}$  & $2.9506^{***}$ & $3.0374^{***}$         & $2.7336^{***}$ \\
                                                           & $(0.1822)$               & $(0.1495)$      & $(0.1414)$     & $(0.1782)$             & $(0.2106)$     \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.3455$                 & $0.5327$        & $0.2307$       & $0.4552$               & $0.3933$       \\
N                                                      & $53$                     & $53$            & $37$           & $46$                   & $53$           \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}


\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Base, Hierarchy Interaction, Politicization Interaction, and Acting Interaction Models Ideologically Opposed Agency Subset}
\tiny
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c}
\\[-1.8ex]\hline 
\hline \\[-1.8ex] 
\\[-1.8ex] & Average Effect & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Hierarchy} & Teams & Actings \\
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
Most Proximate PAS Vacant Months                           & $-0.0017$      & $-0.0045^{*}$   & $0.0004$       & $-0.0024$              & $0.0025$        \\
                                                           & $(0.0030)$     & $(0.0023)$      & $(0.0046)$     & $(0.0042)$             & $(0.0024)$      \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Bureau                        &                & $0.0033$        &                &                        &                 \\
                                                           &                & $(0.0029)$      &                &                        &                 \\
Higher Up PAS Vacant Months                                &                &                 & $-0.0136$      &                        &                 \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0146)$     &                        &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Higher Up PAS Vacant Months   &                &                 & $0.0001$       &                        &                 \\
                                                           &                &                 & $(0.0003)$     &                        &                 \\
Politicization \%                                          &                &                 &                & $0.0080$               &                 \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0100)$             &                 \\
Most Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Politicization \%             &                &                 &                & $0.0004$               &                 \\
                                                           &                &                 &                & $(0.0004)$             &                 \\
Political Acting (Yr. Prior)                               &                &                 &                &                        & $0.5823^{***}$  \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                        & $(0.1787)$      \\
Most  Prox. PAS Vacant Months:Political Acting (Yr. Prior) &                &                 &                &                        & $-0.0158^{***}$ \\
                                                           &                &                 &                &                        & $(0.0040)$      \\
Priority                                                   & $0.0699$       & $0.0659$        & $0.0404$       & $-0.0082$              & $0.0851$        \\
                                                           & $(0.1244)$     & $(0.1240)$      & $(0.1312)$     & $(0.1682)$             & $(0.1207)$      \\
EOP                                                        & $1.0025^{***}$ & $0.9502^{***}$  &                & $0.4001$               & $1.1996^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1444)$     & $(0.1527)$      &                & $(0.3832)$             & $(0.1483)$      \\
Department                                                 & $0.6153^{***}$ & $0.5522^{***}$  &                & $0.5988^{***}$         & $0.6292^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1482)$     & $(0.1392)$      &                & $(0.1797)$             & $(0.1527)$      \\
Bureau                                                     & $-0.5353^{**}$ & $-0.5636^{***}$ &                & $-0.6004^{***}$        & $-0.4802^{**}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1846)$     & $(0.1878)$      &                & $(0.1943)$             & $(0.2149)$      \\
Percent Appointee                                          & $0.4904$       & $0.4471$        & $1.5733$       & $0.2814$               & $0.6435$        \\
                                                           & $(0.5088)$     & $(0.5128)$      & $(0.9930)$     & $(0.5397)$             & $(0.5869)$      \\
Obama                                                      & $-0.1912$      & $-0.1820$       & $-0.1445$      & $-0.1205$              & $-0.2601^{**}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1217)$     & $(0.1282)$      & $(0.1420)$     & $(0.1411)$             & $(0.1078)$      \\
Trump                                                      & $0.1491$       & $0.1562$        & $0.1035$       & $0.1952$               & $0.2311^{**}$   \\
                                                           & $(0.1365)$     & $(0.1436)$      & $(0.1214)$     & $(0.1509)$             & $(0.1032)$      \\
Constant                                                   & $2.9301^{***}$ & $3.0066^{***}$  & $3.0292^{***}$ & $2.9190^{***}$         & $2.7339^{***}$  \\
                                                           & $(0.1220)$     & $(0.1083)$      & $(0.1813)$     & $(0.1554)$             & $(0.1276)$      \\
\hline
R$^2$                                                      & $0.2400$       & $0.2423$        & $0.0994$       & $0.2851$               & $0.3318$        \\
N                                                      & $79$           & $79$            & $54$           & $69$                   & $79$            \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}
\item[] \textbf{Note:} *** p$<$0.01; ** p$<$0.05; *p$<$0.1. Data: Survey on the Future of Government Service, 2007, 2014, and 2020. Dependent variable is weighted average agency response to question: “In general how much influence do you think the following groups [White House] have over policy decisions in [your agency]?” (0-4). Model estimated with Ordinary Least Squares and standard errors are clustered by department with independent agencies and agencies within the Executive Office of the President in separate clusters. Model 3 is estimated on the subset of cases from cabinet department bureaus. 
\end{tablenotes}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\subsection{Validation of Differences Between Acting Official Types}
To validate proposed differences between types of acting officials, careerist and appointed, I gathered information on the background characteristics of acting officials. Following the work of prior scholars \citep[see e.g.,][]{krause_experiential_2016,krause_loyaltycompetence_2019,waterman_rethinking_2020}, certain background characteristics are associated with increased loyalty to the president and the president’s ideological vision, while others are associated with increased competence for the role individuals will perform as an acting official. Specifically, characteristics such as prior service in Congress, for party organizations, and for the president’s campaign are associated with increased loyalty and ideological alignment. Additionally, prior internal agency experience is associated with increased competence.  

To gather this information, I began with the dataset of acting officials that served during the first year of the Trump administration gathered by \citet{piper_presidential_2022}. Then, by using Leadership Connect, LinkedIn, news articles, and agency biography pages, I coded the following variables based on the individual’s career history: 

\begin{itemize}
  \item Congressional Service: Equal to 1 if the acting official previously worked in Congress (including individual members and committees).
  \item Party Service: Equal to 1 if the acting official previously worked for the party (including party organizations and individual campaigns).
  \begin{itemize}
      \item Example of party organizations include DNC, Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democratic Governors Conference, RNC, Log Cabin Republicans, Republican Liberty Caucus, House Republican Conference, National Republican Senatorial Committee, Republican Governors Conference, and state parties. 
  \end{itemize}
  \item Pres. Campaign Service: Equal to 1 if the acting official previously worked for the president’s campaign.
  \item Prior Agency Service: Equal to 1 if the acting official worked in the agency prior to their service as an acting official.
  \item Years in Agency: Length of time in years the acting official worked in the agency prior to their service as an acting official. 
\end{itemize}

Summaries of the acting official background characteristics by acting official type are reported in Table 5.29. As we can see, careerist acting officials are much less likely to have worked previously in Congress or for a party organization. Careerist actings are also less likely to have worked for the president’s campaign, although appointed actings are not often drawn from the president’s campaign staff either. Together, these summary statistics provides strong justification for my description of appointed acting officials as much more loyal and ideologically aligned with the president compared to careerist acting officials. 

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Summary of Background Characteristics of Acting Officials that Served in the First Year of the Trump Administration by Acting Official Type}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/chapter4_acting_background.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}

\subsection{Mediation of Presidential Priority through Vacancies}

Presidential priority may explain both vacancies in appointed positions (e.g., presidents filling positions in agencies on their agenda) and presidential influence (e.g., presidents using other tools beyond appointments to control policymaking in agencies on their agenda). While I control for presidential priority in my OLS models, it is possible that the effect of presidential priority is mediated through vacancies. Therefore, I conducted mediation analysis to observe how much of the effect of presidential priority is direct and how much of the effect is mediated through vacancies. 

Using the mediation package in R \citep{tingley_mediation_2014}, I find that almost none of the effect of priority is mediated through vacant months. This result is shown in the very small proportion mediated in Table 5.30. This result suggests that we should not be concerned that the observed effect of vacant months is being primarily driven by presidential priority. 

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \caption{Causal Mediation Analysis with Presidential Priority (Treatment) and Vacant Months (Mediating Variable)}
    \includegraphics[width=15cm]{Figures/chapter4_mediation.jpg}
    \label{fig:goaltimeline}
\end{table}


\subsection{Sensitivity Analysis}

It is possible that certain factors explain both vacancies in appointed positions and presidential influence over administrative policymaking. While I have included controls for the most likely culprits, it is possible that there remain other confounders that are not controlled for in my OLS models. To address how fragile my estimates are to potential confounding variables, I conducted sensitivity analysis. 

Using the sensemakr package in R \citep{cinelli_making_2020}, I estimated the fragility of the direct effect of political acting officials on presidential influence. I also estimated the fragility of the effect of vacancies on presidential influence for three subsets of agencies,\footnote{Of course, by subsetting the data, I lose statistical power and the observed coefficients will be less precisely estimated. Therefore, the fragility of the estimates in these cases may be overestimated.} those that are non-cabinet department bureaus, those that are high in politicization (at or above the median level of politicization), and those that are low in politicization (at or below the median level of politicization). These analyses will allow me to assess the fragility of the interaction effects between bureau and vacant months and between politicization and vacant months on presidential influence. Examining the fragility of the interaction terms through subsets is required because current estimation techniques are designed to examine the direct effect of a single independent or treatment variable and other covariates are assumed to occur prior to treatment. The inclusion of an interaction term would violate this assumption, as an interaction term comprised partially of the treatment variable by construction would occur at the same time as treatment.  

I began by examining the fragility of the direct effect of the president’s use political acting officials on presidential influence. In this case, unobserved confounders would have to explain 11.1\% of the residual variance of both the independent variable and of presidential influence to be sufficiently strong to explain away all the observed, positive effect. The entire model specification currently explains 17.9\% of the variance in presidential influence. Therefore, confounders would have to explain about 51\% as much of the variance in the influence measure as explained by the entire model.  Further, I find that confounders several times as strong as priority or location in the Executive Office of the President are not sufficient to explain away the observed estimate.

Next, I considered the fragility of the effect of vacant months on presidential influence within non-cabinet department bureaus (e.g., cabinet departments, independent executive agencies, or the EOP). In this case, unobserved confounders would have to explain 29.7\% of the residual variance of both the independent variable and of presidential influence to be sufficiently strong to explain away all the observed, negative effect. The entire model specification currently explains 44.1\% of the variance in presidential influence among non-cabinet department bureaus. Therefore, confounders would have to explain about 37.6\% as much of the variance in the influence measure as explained by the entire model. Further, I find that confounders several times as strong as priority or as strong as location in the Executive Office of the President are not sufficient to explain away the observed estimate. 

Then, I explored the fragility of the effect of vacant months on presidential influence within agencies with high levels of politicization (at or above the median level of politicization). In this case, unobserved confounders would have to explain 8.1\% of the residual variance of both the independent variable and of presidential influence to be sufficiently strong to explain away all the observed, positive effect. The entire model specification currently explains 25.6\% of the variance in presidential influence among highly politicized agencies. Therefore, confounders would have to explain about 23.5\% as much of the variance in the influence measure as explained by the entire model. Further, I find that confounders several times as strong as priority or location in the Executive Office of the President are not sufficient to explain away the observed estimate. 

Finally, I examined the fragility of the effect of vacant months on presidential influence within agencies with low levels of politicization (at or below the median level of politicization). In this case, unobserved confounders would have to explain 11.0\% of the residual variance of both the independent variable and of presidential influence to be sufficiently strong to explain away all the observed, negative effect. The entire model specification currently explains 13.7\% of the variance in presidential influence among lowly politicized agencies. Therefore, confounders would have to explain about 69.3\% as much of the variance in the influence measure as explained by the entire model. Further, I find that confounders several times as strong as priority are not sufficient to explain away the observed estimate.\footnote{Location in the EOP could not be included as a reference confounder because no agency within the EOP had a low enough level of politicization to be included in the subset of agencies with low levels of politicization.}  

